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Discussion Starter #3
I will see if I can do it differently. I did pay for it afterall....


Tesla rivals brace for EV Armageddon
Keith Naughton
Jan 24, 2020 — 12.00am
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Tesla's stock is soaring, and traditional auto manufacturers are staging glitzy presentations of new plug-in models. You'd think the electric-vehicle age was finally dawning.

But so far, Tesla is the only car company looking likely to benefit in the coming years. Look at every other corner of the US auto industry – the world's most valuable automaker, dealers, consumer surveys and market forecasts – and a more ominous picture emerges.


Taking off: Tesla founder Elon Musk has reason to smile. AP

A top American executive for Toyota Motor Corporation, whose market value is still more than double Tesla's even after Elon Musk's epic run, recently warned of electric-car catastrophe. Auto retailers caution growth will be slow, citing still-high battery costs and range constraints. And far more US shoppers are willing to kick the tires on a hybrid than cars that only plug in.

The cause for concern remains as EVs start to appear in showrooms in greater numbers. The number of models on the market will swell almost sevenfold to 121 in the next half decade, from 18 now, according to LMC Automotive. But the researcher sees all those vehicles claiming just 5.5 per cent of US sales in 2025.

"We're going to see electrified Armageddon," Bob Carter, Toyota's executive vice president of North American sales, told reporters in December. "Supply is going to get ahead of true customer demand."
 

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There is another workaround for this type of paywall (similar to the Washington Post) in Safari on a Mac (I've never tested with other browsers). Click on link, Reader, then reload page. Voila!

The primary argument here is that BEV supply will soon outstrip demand. I don't see that happening until battery supply meets current car manufacturer demand. And that will take at least several years.

A larger issue is BEV cost. As governments cease subsidies and raise registration taxes to cover lost road taxes from gasoline sales, it will be difficult to make an economic case. While in some areas, BEVs are cost effective versus ICE vehicles (especially with purchase subsidies in countries like Norway), their manufacturing cost is not dropping fast enough to be truly competitive for most car owners, at least not with limited charging infrastructure and range anxiety.
The address works, but the article is paywalled.

It seems, though, that you can read the article without a subscription if you turn off Javascript in your browser.
 

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Given that the US market is dominated by petrol-driven SUVs that are barely more fuel-efficient than a moon rocket, I'm not sure that I'd take any car manufacturer's 'North American sales VP' that seriously in their opinion of the EV market and where its going.

The problem is that however much it may be true that eventually, the marketplace may be driven by customers looking for greater fuel efficiency and car manufacturers looking to fill that demand, until petrol prices rise somewhat astronomically, there is nothing much but a few lackluster complaints about pump prices lingering around the $2.50 a gallon mark to drag consumer attention towards an EV future.

Sure, Tesla charging stations are beginning to pop up in places they weren't before, but not a whole lot of the car buying public can afford a Tesla. And of those that can, a macho truck with chrome and big wheels, or a vehicle capable of transporting an extended family all at once in mock-leather at an altitude well above the sight-lines from surrounding cars seems far more attractive.

EV manufacturers face an uphill struggle in the real world, because many consumers don't want to spend hours waiting to reach usable battery charge levels on a trip, or even have to worry in the first place about whether there is a charging station on the route they are taking. Then there's the real problem that while range anxiety might be surmountable when drivers have fairly short commutes or infrequent long-range needs, in places such as the US and Australia where intra-city distances can be so great, EVs have a mountain of practical obstacles to climb.

It doesn't seem to me that outside of the likes of Tesla, which is small enough to be agile in the marketplace, and responsive enough to consumers that it is possible to configure designs to meet the sometimes rapidly changing expectations of potential customers, any of the large car manufactures have any real interest in trying to saturate the market with EVs, outside their niches in Europe, or perhaps a few Californian cities. It'll take rather more government encouragements, incentives and subsidies first.

I know that I would be happy to buy an EV. Anytime. It has to cost rather less than $30k, have a range of 300 miles or more, charge in 15 minutes, and I would also want a government subsidy to put solar panels on my roof and pay for a charging station at home, while I'd also need a map of truly usable, fast, charging stations that are almost as plentiful as petrol stations. And I am actually ready to change. Take your average SUV owner, or the guy next door with his F150-something - those folk are going to need a seismic shift in thinking before they take a fuel-efficient option, with EVs likely rather further down their list than a diesel, or something similar.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Here is the rest;

There is irony, of course, in Carter predicting an EV reckoning just as Tesla was wrapping up a record year. The dim view he holds is not unique among legacy automakers, which have spent more than a century building and selling cars that burn fossil fuel. But that cautious mindset is rooted in pragmatism – profits remain elusive in the high-cost, high-price EV business.

That's why Toyota and other automakers have been reluctant to dive head-first into EVs until they're closer to reaching price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, which BloombergNEF predicts will happen around 2024.

Tesla is being rewarded for not waiting: Its shares surged another 6 per cent on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT) to $US540.94, a new intraday record. The stock has doubled since Tesla reported a surprise third-quarter profit in October, bringing the company closer to a $US100 billion ($146 billion) market value.

Musk, whose $US29.3 billion fortune is mostly tied up in Tesla stock, has had a spring in his step lately.
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EV sales are expected to grow to be roughly the size of the shrinking mid-size car segment by mid-decade, to about 934,000 units, LMC says. But whereas the meagre family sedan market will be split between just 13 models, the researcher expects there to be more than nine times as many EVs fighting for air.

Market dominance
Thanks to its hot-selling Model 3 sedan, Tesla accounted for nearly eight-in-10 EV sales in the United States last year. By 2025, LMC sees Tesla offering seven models that will account for a quarter of segment sales. That would leave the 114 competing offerings from other automakers averaging annual sales of 6145 per model, or about 118 units a week.

"It's tough to make a business out of that volume per EV," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice-president of forecasting at LMC. "Electric vehicles are the future. What's in question is when that future will arrive and when it pays off? It's a long road and there definitely could be some carnage along the way."

Automakers, fearing they'll be left behind if they don't accelerate their shift from the internal combustion engine, are going to great lengths to build buzz for new electric models.

Ford staged a star-studded unveiling of its Mustang Mach-E in an airplane hangar a short stroll from SpaceX, Musk's rocket company. Porsche debuted its Taycan using Niagara Falls, a Chinese wind farm and a German solar site as backdrops.

But with the notable exception of the Model 3, consumers have not been charged up by the highly touted electric offerings already on the market.

Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt sagged almost 9 per cent last year and the Nissan Leaf slumped 16 per cent, with neither cresting 17,000 units. Last month, Mercedes-Benz put off the US debut of its first EV by a year after Jaguar and Audi struggled to sell their first electric offerings.

So far, only Tesla and its billionaire chief executive officer have come up with an alluring amalgam of status and sex appeal.


A Tesla Model S idles in Davos ahead of this week's World Economic Forum. Bloomberg

"Tesla has created the market by having a mystique," said Art St Cyr, the head of American auto operations for Honda Motor Co, pointing to Musk's Model 3. "If Honda, Toyota, GM or Ford made that vehicle, we probably wouldn't sell them in those numbers."

Honda, Ford and Toyota, which all have a history of selling hybrids, see them prevailing for the time being because mainstream buyers continue to suffer "range anxiety" – the fear of being stranded by running out of juice in an EV.

"People are not generally willing to pay more to be inconvenienced," St Cyr said.

General Motors Co is jumping more aggressively into EVs, with plans to field 20 models worldwide by 2023 and sell 1 million by 2026. It's joining forces with South Korea's LG Chem Ltd to build a $US2.3 billion battery factory in Lordstown, Ohio, where the car manufacturer stopped building gasoline-fuelled Chevrolet Cruze compacts last year.

"Customers aren't interested in hybrids," Mary Barra, GM's CEO, said during an industry conference in November.

Gas guzzlers
But a study released by Deloitte this month found 27 per cent of US consumers are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8 per cent are looking at pure electrics. Some 59 per cent of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally.

Government mandates have made China the world's top market for EVs, and European regulators also are stimulating demand with incentives to help reach more stringent goals for reduced emissions.

But in the US, where President Donald Trump has sought to ease car-pollution rules and fuel is cheap, consumers are in no hurry to ditch the gas pump. The Deloitte study found consumers in the US are most concerned about a lack of charging stations.

"The automotive ecosystem still has some work to do in terms of making EVs as easy and convenient as internal-combustion engines," said Craig Giffi, Deloitte's vice chairman.

The onslaught of new EVs coming could actually help solve the problem. Until now, most EVs other than Tesla's have been boring "compliance cars" aimed at meeting tougher regulations, said Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering at the American Automobile Association, which just conducted a survey that found 96 per cent of EV owners would buy another because the experience was better than expected.

"Most people are looking for a crossover utility vehicle these days," Brannon said. "Now, we're seeing some of those coming, and that's what it's going to take. It has to be something people want to drive and can get excited about."

The pick-up segment, home to the three best-selling models in the US, is about to get jolt, too. Musk caused a sensation with the unveiling of the Cybertruck in November. Ford has an electric truck under development recently filmed towing 1 million pounds (454,000 kilograms) of loaded rail cars. And Amazon-backed Rivian Automotive Inc plans to roll out its R1T starting late this year.

A video the Tesla CEO tweeted appears to show a two-wheel drive version of the Ford F-150 being dragged by an all-wheel drive Tesla Cybertruck.
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But for all the hype about the chips automakers are pushing forward on the table, it's unclear when or if their gamble will pay off.

"Somebody's got to buy these things," said Toyota's Carter. "There is a market. The question is: How big and when will it mature?"
 

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Interesting that Tesla stock has doubled in the last three months. Of personal interest because it is the only stock I own, Apple has doubled in the last 12 months. It is still behaving like a growth stock for some reason. Or maybe investors have finally realized how profitable it is. I only have some because I'm a fan of the company (not as much as I used to be).
 

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Discussion Starter #8
I know that I would be happy to buy an EV. Anytime. It has to cost rather less than $30k, have a range of 300 miles or more, charge in 15 minutes, and I would also want a government subsidy to put solar panels on my roof and pay for a charging station at home, while I'd also need a map of truly usable, fast, charging stations that are almost as plentiful as petrol stations. And I am actually ready to change. Take your average SUV owner, or the guy next door with his F150-something - those folk are going to need a seismic shift in thinking before they take a fuel-efficient option, with EVs likely rather further down their list than a diesel, or something similar.
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I do not think there is really a mass market for EVs charged away from home.
EVs are great but who can be bothered with standing around to charge. If you do it home it is a no brainer..
Interesting that Tesla stock has doubled in the last three months. Of personal interest because it is the only stock I own, Apple has doubled in the last 12 months. It is still behaving like a growth stock for some reason. Or maybe investors have finally realized how profitable it is. I only have some because I'm a fan of the company (not as much as I used to be).
Nah the market is running into looney territory. Bank your profit now before it all goes pear shaped.
 

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"Tesla has created the market by having a mystique," said Art St Cyr, the head of American auto operations for Honda Motor Co, pointing to Musk's Model 3.
Demonstrably stupid and self-serving comment from the gas-guzzler economy. All that Tesla has done is create almost-affordable EVs that meet a significant proportion of existent bubbling demand, and consequently establish a volume of sales to reach closer to the tipping point in the otherwise-stalled equation of insufficient demand to trigger infrastructure build-out. Honda could have done it, but they are too greedy and too fixated on the short-termism of immediate sales. They are also too self-assured in that they believe that continuing to push old ideas dressed as new cars is the only innovation they need.

It's the common denominator amongst just about all the old-school manufacturers, almost regardless of where they are based, ably assisted by their primary markets, such as the US, where there is more profit in innovating paint options each year than radical products.

I do not think there is really a mass market for EVs charged away from home.
EVs are great but who can be bothered with standing around to charge. If you do it home it is a no brainer..
Arguably there is no mass-market for EVs charged away from home because other than in a few large urban areas 'out west', there's no charging infrastructure to provide such charging, and insufficient sales of vehicles to trigger that build-out elsewhere. Given that charging stations cost money to build, it isn't a moot question to ask who will build them if there are not enough EVs to make them profitable. The corollary is also true of course: Who will buy the cars if the infrastructure isn't there to support them.

Which takes us on to... 'doing it at home being a no brainer'..... I seriously don't think this is true. There are plenty of people (such as me) who perhaps could build a charging station at home, but for whom the economics of scale don't really justify it in the short term. For others, plenty of others, there is no practical way of charging at home. Tough to run a cable off the 15th-floor balcony of a condo, for example.

Charging infrastructure takes real investment. Once again, Tesla have demonstrated they understand that so much better than the legacy manufacturers seem remotely able to. Mystique? Jeez, that's exactly the dumb-ass miscomprehension that explains why we are in this situation to begin with.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Demonstrably stupid and self-serving comment from the gas-guzzler economy. All that Tesla has done is create almost-affordable EVs that meet a significant proportion of existent bubbling demand, and consequently establish a volume of sales to reach closer to the tipping point in the otherwise-stalled equation of insufficient demand to trigger infrastructure build-out. Honda could have done it, but they are too greedy and too fixated on the short-termism of immediate sales. They are also too self-assured in that they believe that continuing to push old ideas dressed as new cars is the only innovation they need.

It's the common denominator amongst just about all the old-school manufacturers, almost regardless of where they are based, ably assisted by their primary markets, such as the US, where there is more profit in innovating paint options each year than radical products.



Arguably there is no mass-market for EVs charged away from home because other than in a few large urban areas 'out west', there's no charging infrastructure to provide such charging, and insufficient sales of vehicles to trigger that build-out elsewhere. Given that charging stations cost money to build, it isn't a moot question to ask who will build them if there are not enough EVs to make them profitable. The corollary is also true of course: Who will buy the cars if the infrastructure isn't there to support them.

Which takes us on to... 'doing it at home being a no brainer'..... I seriously don't think this is true. There are plenty of people (such as me) who perhaps could build a charging station at home, but for whom the economics of scale don't really justify it in the short term. For others, plenty of others, there is no practical way of charging at home. Tough to run a cable off the 15th-floor balcony of a condo, for example.

Charging infrastructure takes real investment. Once again, Tesla have demonstrated they understand that so much better than the legacy manufacturers seem remotely able to. Mystique? Jeez, that's exactly the dumb-ass miscomprehension that explains why we are in this situation to begin with.
The only comments I would make is that there is no need to spend any money on charging infrastructure at home. We only have a granny charger plugged into a standard outlet. We plug in everynight on night rate power. We can get 60 km charge every night, but we dont, as we dont drive that far daily.
Fast charging is unnecessary if you do it overnight at home.
From what I have seen there is a move away from free charging. There is no way I would put up with the inconvenience of away from home charging and actually pay for it! I would do all my charging at home thank you very much.
If you are reliant on using public charging to get around I would contend you have the wrong car for your needs unless you enjoy going to service stations. Largely my point on going EV was to avoid the service station, going often and for much longer to charge up would totally defeat this benefit.
 

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The only comments I would make is that there is no need to spend any money on charging infrastructure at home.
That may be true for many, but certainly not for all. Nor is charging at home an option for many for obvious reasons, such as the example I gave previously.

The point here is not what an individual, such as you or I, might choose for ourselves based on options that work for ourselves, it is how the market as a whole is developing. Individual choice is up to the individual, but the market for cars, including EVs, is determined by the kind of self-serving legacy manufacturing idiot that has been quoted in this thread. These people pontificate about the future a great deal, and then go on building the same old energy-inefficient vehicles disguised by this-year's-new-shape, which always seems to be a tad bigger than last year's, and fails entirely to move the market towards improved efficiency and less dependence on oil.

Charging an EV away from home is an absolute essential if EVs are to make sense to the majority of owners who have longer range needs than local commutes or make more than irregular/infrequent road trips, or have no readily viable home-charging options. There is no avoiding that fact, and that is where investment is sorely needed - not just to build charging stations, but to ensure that EV owners can use them without being ripped off, and preferably reasonably quickly so they can stop, charge, and be on their way without the experience turning into a destination of its own due to long stop-overs.

All in all, it seems to me that there is much to be said for EVs being anything but the car of the future. At least until batteries are considerably more efficient, charging stations much more plentiful (and reliably in-service), and charging much more rapid. That isn't to say that EVs don't fulfill a current (no pun intended) need - clearly for some they do - but because to be mainstream, they have to be cheaper to buy, and far more seamless to use.

My point being that Tesla seem to know this and have some sense of how to achieve those objectives, while the legacy manufacturers are just making endless excuses for themselves failing to even comprehend the real problem - which is that it is they who are the real problem. Well, them and governments for failing to invest directly in EV infrastructure, or encourage the investment of others in it.

Thus, when you say
If you are reliant on using public charging to get around I would contend you have the wrong car for your needs
I would largely have to agree, given present circumstances. My one and only public charging option has been out of service since last August, with the owners saying it is not worth their while to repair it.
 

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When I got my Ioniq in 2018 I was very excited that finally an average Joe could get an electric car. I told my co-workers that EV's would revolutionize the auto industry in five years. Now almost two years later there has been a lot of industry promises and a lot of repositioning for the future. But not much noticeable change on the roads. Except for Tesla.

The few people I know who own a Tesla are all very satisfied and impressed with the cars. This is a great sign, a good start to the EV future. But they didn't buy a Tesla because it is an EV, they bought it because it's a Tesla. I mean, these are people with a lot of money, not your average Joe. They bought a Tesla for the luxury, image, and cool technology.

It is a slow change, held back by big oil, government incompetence, the entrenched auto industry, and the inertia of public preference. To me the EV revolution feels a little closer but still five years away. It's a slow trickle yes, but it is growing, and it wont be stopped.
 

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It is a slow change, held back by big oil, government incompetence, the entrenched auto industry, and the inertia of public preference. To me the EV revolution feels a little closer but still five years away. It's a slow trickle yes, but it is growing, and it wont be stopped.
In Canada at least it feels like we're at a tipping point. Petro Canada has just completed installing a cross-country DC fast charger network that lets non-Tesla's (even a 28 kWh Ioniq) travel from coast to coast, and Canadian Tire (a major auto/sports/hardware/housewares retail chain) is installing a mix of DC fast and Level 2 destination chargers at all of their stores. We're hardly Norway, but we're on the path and it feels good.
 
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