In order to break even with 10 cent/kwh electricity, gas prices would have to increase to $1.45/gal. Do you feel "lucky"?

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In order to break even with 10 cent/kwh electricity, gas prices would have to increase to $1.45/gal. Do you feel "lucky"?

Obviously none of us know for sure, but my guess would be that it will not.

Personally, I have never been interested in a plug-in, but it is not based on a cost analysis. I have driven a hybrid for 7 years now, and will never own a non-hybrid, except for possibly a EV. But recent disclosures regarding the Ioniq EV's range, has dampened my interest. It will be interesting to how where all these questions will look towards the end of 2016.

The HEV does break even eventually, though. My point is that the PHEV and EV never break even. Each charge digs you further into the hole. And this analysis looks at fuel prices only. BEVs suffer from battery degradation and rapid depreciation. I don't think you break even on a BEV even if the electricity is free.

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Sorry to revive an old thread but this got me interested. I live in British Columbia, Canada.

I ordered a 2019 HEV Essential in August, that I haven’t received yet. When I was talking to my neighbour who drives a 2017 HEV Blue (same vehicle), he told me if the PHEV was available for the 2017 model year, he would have purchased that because it is much cheaper to own then a HEV. After he said that, I sat down and calculated the difference in cost to run each vehicle and the time it would take to repay the higher initial cost of the PHEV. I only looked at fuel/electrical costs, i did not consider maintenance costs or any other differences there might be between vehicles.

My assumptions are as follows:

• Cost of fuel $1.50/litre

• Cost of electric power is $0.146/kWh (BC Hydro, tier 2 residential rate, includes 5% surcharge and 5% general sales tax)

• Cost of electrical power to completely recharge 8.9 kWh battery of PHEV (assumes battery is completely depleted and charger is 100% efficient) = $1.30 (8.9 kWh X $0.146/kWh)

• Fuel efficiency of both HEV and PHEV in hybrid mode (i.e. PHEV once battery is depleted) is 5.0 l/100 km. I know that the rated efficiency numbers are much better but I assumed this was real world driving in the city.

• Difference in cost to purchase PHEV Preferred (lowest PHEV trim available in Canada) compared to HEV Essential is $6348 (after taxes, includes $2500 government rebate for PHEV).

• Assume that I drive 20,000 km/year. The best case scenario (best case for the PHEV economics) is if I drive 54.8 km every day. Assume the first 47 km are driven 100% in EV mode with the remaining 7.8 km driven in hybrid mode.

I plugged in these assumptions into a spreadsheet and calculated the annual fuel cost for the HEV and annual fuel/electrical cost for the PHEV. I then calculated the years it would take to repay the $6348 higher initial purchase price and it would take 8.7 years to break even. To me, that’s a long time to break even. I appreciate that the PHEV Preferred is better equipped than the base HEV Essential. So one is getting a nicer, better equipped car for the extra money, on top of the plug in. And a PHEV leaves a small environmental footprint as well, which can't be neglected. But, in British Columbia, Canada, if someone is buying the PHEV to save money in the long run, I really don’t see it. And keep in mind that the assumptions I used grossly favor the PHEV. My normal driving habits are more like a 30-40 days per year where I drive 200-300 km, and many days where I don’t drive at all. I also assumed that the first 47 km are entirely in EV mode (the ICE never fires up) which is likely not realistic. If I plug in these more realistic assumptions in my spreadsheet, the break even time gets much longer.

Am I missing something here?

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they time to repay varies widely with your usage pattern,

the biggest driver for people getting PHEV's / EV's is their wish to minimise their environmental impact

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Not quite that much as he did not consider charging efficiency. No matter, with his assumptions, he is correct that there is a very long return on investment. Much depends on actual usage, and government subsidies (which artificially distort use cases). Very few indeed would buy PHEVs or even EVs at full MRSP.Fromhere:

Battery Capacity 8.9 kWh

Battery Useable 7.1 kWh

This makes 25% lower electricity cost than you estimated.

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they time to repay varies widely with your usage pattern,

the biggest driver for people getting PHEV's / EV's is their wish to minimise their environmental impact

Well, here I have an advantage: I paid the same for a new PHEV as we paid for a HEV at the same time, from the same dealer. You can read about why in another post, but it was the deciding factor for the choice between a PHEV or a second HEV.

Over 6,000 miles the results are interesting:

The PHEV never gets less than 80 mpg, the HEV never gets more than 65 MPG (UK gallons).

The PHEV does 39 miles on a `tankful` of `lectrickery, the per-tankful equivalent of about 100 miles. Thus local trips are `pure electric`.

Our electricity bill has risen by 30%, equivalent to about one quarter of a single gallon of `gas` - which equates to about 20 miles based on the PHEV average. Or about the same as the difference in mpg between HEV and PHEV. 100 miles of local travel equates to the cost of one quarter of a gallon of fuel - or 400 miles per gallon.

Try as one might, at no time can one get the equivalent mileage of a HEV to `400 mpg`, unless you don't drive it anywhere, or throw it off a cliff...

`Logic` may say it makes so little difference that the PHEV makes no sense in the UK market - especially now the price differential and allowance has been eroded by Government, but reality is somewhat different: Other factors intrude - on many occasions I have `filled up` the PHEV which is nominally the same engine size as the HEV. The marginal difference between the 65 and 80 mpg average means I can pay all running costs for the PHEV from my car and mileage allowance, which is the same regardless of HEV/PHEV choice.

So on the basis of equivalent purchase price I'm quids-in with a PHEV over a HEV on UK operating costs and values to the point of paying service and maintenance costs compared to my previous HEV, adjusted over 40,000 miles of ownership (the basis of my previous HEV before my current PHEV).

Look very carefully at mileage allowances, cost of maintenance

Don’t batteries freeze solid in Calgary winters?Come to Canada and it makes sense. $1.20 a litre right now in Calgary. Electricity is $.10 a kWh all in.

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I don't think you are missing anything. Though I did come up with different numbers when I did the calculations. Based on what you pay for gas I estimate it will cost you $0.11 to drive a mile with gas. And based on what you pay for electricity I estimate it will cost you $0.05 to drive a mile with electricity. So for your assumed driving pattern (which I agree is overly optimistic in favor of the PHEV) I think you would save $630 per year driving the PHEV. So if the PHEV costs $6350 more than the HEV Ioniq then it would take 10 years to recover the higher up front cost. That is a long time.Sorry to revive an old thread but this got me interested. I live in British Columbia, Canada.

I ordered a 2019 HEV Essential in August, that I haven’t received yet. When I was talking to my neighbour who drives a 2017 HEV Blue (same vehicle), he told me if the PHEV was available for the 2017 model year, he would have purchased that because it is much cheaper to own then a HEV. After he said that, I sat down and calculated the difference in cost to run each vehicle and the time it would take to repay the higher initial cost of the PHEV. I only looked at fuel/electrical costs, i did not consider maintenance costs or any other differences there might be between vehicles.

My assumptions are as follows:

• Cost of fuel $1.50/litre

• Cost of electric power is $0.146/kWh (BC Hydro, tier 2 residential rate, includes 5% surcharge and 5% general sales tax)

• Cost of electrical power to completely recharge 8.9 kWh battery of PHEV (assumes battery is completely depleted and charger is 100% efficient) = $1.30 (8.9 kWh X $0.146/kWh)

• Fuel efficiency of both HEV and PHEV in hybrid mode (i.e. PHEV once battery is depleted) is 5.0 l/100 km. I know that the rated efficiency numbers are much better but I assumed this was real world driving in the city.

• Difference in cost to purchase PHEV Preferred (lowest PHEV trim available in Canada) compared to HEV Essential is $6348 (after taxes, includes $2500 government rebate for PHEV).

• Assume that I drive 20,000 km/year. The best case scenario (best case for the PHEV economics) is if I drive 54.8 km every day. Assume the first 47 km are driven 100% in EV mode with the remaining 7.8 km driven in hybrid mode.

I plugged in these assumptions into a spreadsheet and calculated the annual fuel cost for the HEV and annual fuel/electrical cost for the PHEV. I then calculated the years it would take to repay the $6348 higher initial purchase price and it would take 8.7 years to break even. To me, that’s a long time to break even. I appreciate that the PHEV Preferred is better equipped than the base HEV Essential. So one is getting a nicer, better equipped car for the extra money, on top of the plug in. And a PHEV leaves a small environmental footprint as well, which can't be neglected. But, in British Columbia, Canada, if someone is buying the PHEV to save money in the long run, I really don’t see it. And keep in mind that the assumptions I used grossly favor the PHEV. My normal driving habits are more like a 30-40 days per year where I drive 200-300 km, and many days where I don’t drive at all. I also assumed that the first 47 km are entirely in EV mode (the ICE never fires up) which is likely not realistic. If I plug in these more realistic assumptions in my spreadsheet, the break even time gets much longer.

Am I missing something here?

What I don't understand is why the PHEV costs so much more than the HEV even when including a government rebate. I went to Hyundai's web site where they list the MSRP for all their models. The 2018 HEV Ioniq base model is listed at MSRP of $22,200. The 2018 PHEV Ioniq base model is listed at MSRP of $24,950. (they did not show prices for the 2019 Ioniqs). That is only a difference of $2,800. If you get a government rebate of $2,500 shouldn't the PHEV cost only $300 more, which you could recover in 6 months?

Am I missing something here?

The 2019 Ioniqs that I have seen on Cars.com seem to be more expensive than the 2018 equivalent cars. How much did Hyundai raise the MSRP of the 2019 model Ioniqs? Or are you comparing a high end PHEV to a low end HEV?

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