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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I found the following excerpt from a report on the future of EV's from UC Davis.

"Despite ongoing discoveries, most forecasters predict a near- to medium-term gap between market supplies and demand, resulting in a supply crunch in the next 5 to 10 years—a critical period during which rapid decarbonization must take place in order to avert even more catastrophic global warming. This imbalance between supply and demand is reflected in high prices for battery-grade lithium, which by September 2022 were nearly 800 percent higher for lithium carbonate and nearly 1,000 percent higher for lithium hydroxide than at the start of 2021.39 Over time, high prices are expected to drive enough investment to meet demand. However, lithium mines take an average of 16.5 years to develop, which may create supply bottlenecks even with increasing investment."

The entire report can be found at: https://www.climateandcommunity.org/_files/ugd/d6378b_3b79520a747948618034a2b19b9481a0.pdf

If you take the time to read into the report starting at page 16 it gets into the lithium problems. Large battery EV truck fleets and buses will consume large quantities of the lithium mining. The next thing that will happen if EV's really take hold is the size of batteries in cars will come under attack. California will lead the way as usual as they love to force everyone into what they decide is the way you should live. Banning ICE vehicles and then the limiting you to a Chey Bolt size battery.

Of course all of this depends if they can figure out the electric grid problems first. Good luck with that.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
The problem is time has run out. You have ignorant politicians pushing everyone into EV's before the technology is ready. In fact nothing is ready, from charging stations to enough cars for everyone to purchase. They obviously have created a war on fossil fuels forcing gas prices higher to make everyone look for alternative powered vehicles. They have no desire to lower gas prices and feel they are too low now. Even blame them on the convenient and horrible Russian war.
 

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There are work arounds for this:

And new battery chemistries are becoming viable as well.
 

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The problem is time has run out. You have ignorant politicians pushing everyone into EV's before the technology is ready. In fact nothing is ready, from charging stations to enough cars for everyone to purchase. They obviously have created a war on fossil fuels forcing gas prices higher to make everyone look for alternative powered vehicles. They have no desire to lower gas prices and feel they are too low now. Even blame them on the convenient and horrible Russian war.
so oil companies with record breaking profits year over year are not to blame for high gas prices? You're just looking to blame everyone else.
Europe decided to stop importing hydrocarbons from russia which used to account for 60% of their energy. You don't think that would drive up energy prices when they have to find new sources from US and middle east. Wouldn't it make more sense to be less reliant on oil which is volatile geopolitically? There is no law banning ICE despite what you've heard.
 

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so oil companies with record breaking profits year over year are not to blame for high gas prices? You're just looking to blame everyone else.
Europe decided to stop importing hydrocarbons from russia which used to account for 60% of their energy. You don't think that would drive up energy prices when they have to find new sources from US and middle east. Wouldn't it make more sense to be less reliant on oil which is volatile geopolitically? There is no law banning ICE despite what you've heard.
Right. Whenever politics are involved I just step back and ask myself two questions, 1) what are literally all of our trading partners/fellow democracies doing, is it the same or different and 2) what's the real problem.

Like with every metric we're behind on the rest of Europe and most of our partners are moving aggressively towards EVs, we're just at the tail end as usual.

The real thing that seems to cause a lot of people anxiety, while we have no issues charging really, odd, is the grid. Well, if the grid is the problem it should be fixed, without without EVs and retarding the adoption of EVs isn't going to make grid operators fix their stuff. Of course, grids in most our partner countries are also single, federalized sorts, that allow them to nimbly adapt to things like russia too.

TLDR: Everyone really is moving to EVs faster than the US and those countries by and large have nationally run grids that are rapidly adopting renewables and - as with the russia thing - doing so at a rate we never thought possible.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
so oil companies with record breaking profits year over year are not to blame for high gas prices? You're just looking to blame everyone else.
Europe decided to stop importing hydrocarbons from Russia which used to account for 60% of their energy. You don't think that would drive up energy prices when they have to find new sources from US and middle east. Wouldn't it make more sense to be less reliant on oil which is volatile geopolitically? There is no law banning ICE despite what you've heard.
You're way behind in keeping up with the politicians. California has indeed banned ICE vehicle sales by 2035 with other vehicle requirements starting in 2026. NY and other blue states are to follow.
So they come to us and we sell them our strategic oil reserves during a war that could easily spread to keep supply up and prices down. They killed our production and created the shortage which resulted in record high oil and gas prices and resulted in oil company's record profits. Stupid politicians messing with supply and demand.
 

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No one started a war to get you to buy an EV. That is pure conspiratorial thinking to align with an anti EV sentiment.

The world needs to decarbonise and the sooner the better however it will take time and because of this the world's systems will adapt accordingly.

Imagine when petrol cars first came out you told people we need to build multiple gas stations in every town across the whole world, pump billions of barrels of oil out of the ground each year and ship it around the globe in massive super tankers. The task would have looked insurmountable and you'd be called a crank for suggesting there was that much oil in the ground.

The time to start the transition is past and what better hedge against fuel price instability dictated by other countries is local renewable power sources.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Right. Whenever politics are involved I just step back and ask myself two questions, 1) what are literally all of our trading partners/fellow democracies doing, is it the same or different and 2) what's the real problem.

Like with every metric we're behind on the rest of Europe and most of our partners are moving aggressively towards EVs, we're just at the tail end as usual.

The real thing that seems to cause a lot of people anxiety, while we have no issues charging really, odd, is the grid. Well, if the grid is the problem it should be fixed, without without EVs and retarding the adoption of EVs isn't going to make grid operators fix their stuff. Of course, grids in most our partner countries are also single, federalized sorts, that allow them to nimbly adapt to things like russia too.

TLDR: Everyone really is moving to EVs faster than the US and those countries by and large have nationally run grids that are rapidly adopting renewables and - as with the Russia thing - doing so at a rate we never thought possible.
We shouldn't be compared to Europe. We have much larger geographic area and a multitude of terrain to cover. I also remember Switzerland telling everyone not to charge there EV's not that long ago due to the electric grid rationing. The charging issue is not anywhere close to being solved in most areas of the country. There are pockets of the country were you can find chargers within your car's range. There are however large areas of the country that can't be crossed due to lack of high speed charging. Even here in the heavily populated Northeast we have hardly any high speed chargers in PA,MD, and NJ. You can't take a trip to the shore and make it back.
 

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The DC infrastructure is trying to play "catch up" right now. No question. But it seems like new DC chargers are springing up all over now - even entirely new networks are rolling out. My wife and I only have one car. Before I ordered this EV I did my homework to make sure an EV would get us to where we need to travel. In my area (central US) I can travel anywhere I usually go without a DC charger problem. My son lives 1,000 miles south of us (in Texas) and there's plenty of DC charging to make that trip. Same with my daughter and her husband... no lack of chargers on that trip. From here to North Carolina (a 1,500 mile round trip we are making in a few months) has plenty of DC charging along the way. We vacation in northern Wisconsin and it looks like that has chargers along the way too - and more being installed too. This fall we are heading west to Kansas City. Looks like DC chargers everywhere on that trip. I'm sure there are areas of the country that lack chargers, but that will rapidly change (probably have planned chargers for yet this year in many of those places). In a couple of years they will be everywhere. Money will drive this too as more people transition to EVs.

No question this EV thing is bleeding edge right now - with a number of issues. But the issues will be ironed out sooner rather than later. I'm thinking people just resist change. Folks probably thought the sky was falling when people started transitioning from horse and buggies to those newfangled "horseless carriages" - but the world didn't end did it? We'll be fine.
 

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Dafür gibt es Workarounds:

Und neue Batteriechemien werden ebenfalls realisierbar.
[/ZITIEREN]
Der deutsche Lithium-Schatz
Stand: 18.10.2021 17:04 Uhr
Für die Elektromobilität spielt Lithium eine Schlüsselrolle. Noch wird das "weiße Gold" vor allem in Südamerika gefördert. Doch Europas größte Quelle liegt in Deutschland. Erste Firmen wollen den Schatz heben.
Seit Jahrhunderten suchen Hobby-Forscher nach dem Schatz der Nibelungen im Rhein. Bisher vergeblich. Das Gold der Nibelungen dürfte wohl nie gefunden werden, es existiert vermutlich nur in der Sage. Einen echten Schatz gibt es aber wirklich - tief unter dem Rhein. Im 300 Kilometer langen und bis zu 40 Kilometer tiefen Oberrheingraben schlummert ein wahrer Lithium-Schatz.

Ein Stück mit Lithium durchsetztes Stück Erz |  picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentrale
11.10.2021
Projekt in BrandenburgGrößte Lithium-Raffinerie Europas geplant
Die Tesla-Ansiedlung in Brandenburg zieht immer mehr Zulieferer in die Region.


Vulcan Energie wird geothermisch Lithium aus dem Rhein holen
Insgesamt 15 Millionen Tonnen des "weißen Goldes" könnten allein in einem untersuchten Teil des Oberrheintals liegen, glaubt Geologe Horst Kreuter. Daraus könnten jährlich 40.000 Tonnen Lithiumhydroxid gewonnen werden. „Damit ließe sich dann eine Million E-Autos – abhängig von der Batterieleistung und der Art der Batterie – ausstatten“, sagt er gegenüber tagesschau.de . "Das gesamte Oberrheintal ist damit die größte Lithiumlagerstätte Europas und eine der größten der Welt."
Kreuter will mit seinem Unternehmen Vulcan Energie den Lithium-Schatz im Rhein heben. Er hat ein geothermisches Verfahren entwickelt, bei dem bis 200 Grad heißes Thermalwasser aus bis zu vier Kilometer Tiefe nach oben gepumpt und Lithium herausgefiltert wird.
 

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They are not really going to get smaller, battery are getting larger capacities. LG is working on lithium-sulfur batteries that will offer about double the range with the same size of batteries and the use less rare metals so they will be cheaper to make. Or in smaller cars like a Bolt / Leaf use fewer batteries and keep a similar amount of rage as they currently. have. They are expecting to out by 2027.

Also not, they are no Banning gas cars. Those states are saying they won't allow new gas only cars to be sold, keep your old cars as long as you want. And new plug in gas-hybrid cars can still be sold. I also would expect the date to be extended one or two times as needed.
 

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We shouldn't be compared to Europe. We have much larger geographic area and a multitude of terrain to cover. I also remember Switzerland telling everyone not to charge there EV's not that long ago due to the electric grid rationing. The charging issue is not anywhere close to being solved in most areas of the country. There are pockets of the country were you can find chargers within your car's range. There are however large areas of the country that can't be crossed due to lack of high speed charging. Even here in the heavily populated Northeast we have hardly any high speed chargers in PA,MD, and NJ. You can't take a trip to the shore and make it back.
Not quite true, Europe has around 740 million people and is slightly bigger that the USA, the EU however has around 500 million people and is around half the size of the USA!
 

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There's some interesting Aluminium-graphene batteries being tried out now, in coin-cell sizes. Assuming it works, and can be scaled up, and has adequate kWh/kg power density, then you can say goodbye to Lithium cells, at least in cars. Tesla's managing to put LiPo batteries into a low-medium range Model 3, ok that simply eliminates need for Cobalt, but the point is that current energy densities are ok for many Ev drivers. (At a pinch we could continue to manage with the current density, though lower obvs nicer & better so there will always be a drive to improve this bit).

Lithium's getting expensive, so the cost savings alone from switching to Aluminium would make it a no-brainer.

Then if batteries get a lot cheaper, we'll see more & more Rapid chargers coupled to a decent-sized battery housed in metal box alongside, so these can be trickle charged overnight & avoid the need for really high current grid supplies. Just what Tesla do with their mobile superchargers on back of a lorry.

Stil a lot of improvement & adaptation to be getting on with! Economics will sort the Lithium problem, one way or another.
 
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